9 October 2026 | COMEX High Grade Copper — December 2026 (HGZ6)

Copper suffered a sharp reversal on Thursday, October 8, before recovering modestly on Friday morning. The move illustrates the tension between growing concerns about mine supply and uncertainty over the strength of underlying demand.

The strike at Chile's Centinela mine has added to supply concerns, while expectations of renewed Chinese buying following the National Day holiday initially supported prices. However, Thursday's reversal shows that bullish supply news does not guarantee a sustained rally.

Copper Insight View: The near-term outlook is neutral to cautiously bullish. Supply risks provide underlying support, but the market needs to regain key resistance levels before the bullish case becomes more convincing.

Reference contract: December 2026 COMEX High Grade Copper (HGZ6).

Wednesday's reference close was approximately $6.6495/lb. On Thursday, HGZ6 fell 1.26% to around $6.5658/lb, after trading between $6.5145 and $6.7640.

Friday's latest retrieved quote was approximately $6.5960/lb, up around 0.46% on the day, with a reported range of $6.5633–$6.5963.

The important development is the failed Thursday rally. Prices initially rose amid expectations of Chinese restocking and concerns over mine supply, but subsequently reversed sharply. Friday's modest recovery suggests some buying interest at lower levels, although prices remain below Wednesday's reference close.

The immediate technical picture remains unsettled following Thursday's reversal.

Support levels

Resistance levels

A sustained recovery above $6.65 would improve the short-term outlook. A move through $6.70 would strengthen that signal. Conversely, a break below $6.56 followed by a test of $6.51 would indicate renewed selling pressure.

These are provisional price-structure levels, not guarantees of future support or resistance.

Workers at Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela copper mine began strike action on October 7 after government-mediated negotiations failed to produce an agreement. The dispute adds to existing concerns about labour relations at BHP's Escondida mine.

The eventual production impact at Centinela remains uncertain. The unions have warned that the disruption could increasingly affect production, while Antofagasta has maintained its full-year production guidance. The duration of the strike and its effect on mining and processing activity will be important to monitor.

Expectations of renewed Chinese buying after the National Day holiday helped support Thursday's initial advance. However, restocking expectations should not automatically be interpreted as evidence of stronger end-user demand.

Inventories, spot premiums and purchasing by manufacturers will provide more useful evidence of whether physical demand is improving.

China's efforts to secure copper-concentrate supplies highlight continuing pressure on the raw-material market. Concentrate availability affects smelter economics and can influence expectations for refined copper production.

This is a structural factor rather than a complete explanation for short-term price movements, but it reinforces the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions.

The US dollar, Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain important influences on dollar-denominated copper. A stronger dollar can create a headwind, while improving expectations for industrial demand may provide support.

The fundamental and technical pictures are sending mixed signals.

Fundamentals: Mine-supply risks provide support, while the strength of Chinese end-user demand remains uncertain.

Technicals: Thursday's sharp reversal shows that buyers failed to sustain the rally. Friday's recovery is constructive but has not yet restored the previous closing level.

The market therefore has a supportive supply narrative, but needs stronger price action and clearer evidence of physical demand before a sustained bullish advance can be established.

Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish.

Why: Mine-supply disruptions and concerns over concentrate availability provide underlying support. However, Thursday's reversal demonstrates that these factors have not been sufficient to sustain the rally. A recovery above $6.65/lb would strengthen the near-term bullish case, while a break below $6.56/lb would raise the risk of a retest of Thursday's low.

Bullish scenario: HGZ6 recovers above $6.65 and subsequently tests $6.70, while mine-supply concerns persist.

Base scenario: Prices consolidate between approximately $6.56 and $6.70 as the market balances supply risks against uncertain demand.

Bearish scenario: Prices break below $6.56 and revisit the $6.51 area, particularly if physical demand disappoints or the US dollar strengthens.

Confidence: Medium-low, reflecting the conflicting signals and the need for confirmation from price action.

Price: Whether HGZ6 can reclaim and hold above $6.65/lb.

Mining: Developments at Centinela, particularly the duration of the strike and any confirmed production impact, alongside further developments at Escondida.

China: Evidence that physical buying is improving after the holiday period.

Macro: US dollar and Treasury-yield movements, alongside changing Federal Reserve expectations.

Bottom line: Copper's supply outlook remains supportive, but supply concerns alone may not sustain higher prices. The market needs confirmation from physical demand and a technical recovery before the bullish case strengthens.